Palestinian Resistance Factions: Geared Up for Rafah Invasion Scenario

By Al Mayadeen English

Palestinian factions release a joint statement warning against an Israeli invasion of Rafah.

Palestinian Resistance factions affirmed in a joint statement that the Resistance is all geared up for any plausible scenario in the ongoing Israeli aggression on the Gaza Strip, including a ground invasion of Rafah, the southernmost city in the besieged territory. 

In a statement on Wednesday, the factions emphasized that they "will not sit idly by," as "all options (for escalation) are on the table," warning against the catastrophic and humanitarian consequences of any ground aggression on Rafah, which hosts more than 1.4 million displaced Palestinians.

The Palestinian factions held US President Joe Biden's administration and Western governments fully responsible for any Israeli invasion of Rafah, as Western backing to "Israel" is ongoing despite the occupation's violation of multiple international conventions and laws.

In the same context, the factions called on the Palestinian masses in the cities of the West Bank to "rise vehemently" in protest against Israeli threats of invading Rafah.

"We call on our people to turn the West Bank into a fireball in the face of Israeli settlers and soldiers," the statement urged. 

Furthermore, the Palestinian factions affirmed that the Israeli genocidal war would not restore the defeated military of the occupation.

They also warned of "a comprehensive escalation and explosion that will affect the region and threaten its national security, especially Egyptian national security," in case an invasion into Rafah, which borders Egypt, is launched. 

On the same issue, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas' Political Bureau, affirmed that "Washington's stance [on the issue] is deceptive" and that Palestinians "have not fallen into the trap of" the American and Israeli good cop bad cop act. 

Haniyeh stressed, in an interview for the Turkish Anadolu Agency on April 21, that "if the enemy decides to go to Rafah, our people will not raise the white flag, and the resistance is ready to defend itself."

How Columbia University is the New Face of the Intellectual Intifada

By Rachel Hamdoun

Source: Al Mayadeen English

Students of the United States, of all ethnicities and backgrounds, are bringing back the anti-war movement that was ignited during the American war on Vietnam in the 1960s. 

Students have forever been the face of the young revolution, only now being louder, fearless, and more audacious 

Universities across the United States have been witnessing an expanding movement on campuses by students protesting for Palestine against the war waged by "Israel" and supported by the US. This movement is not new - this movement is reborn with a cause brushed under the history books only to be unearthed by those living it.

Students of the United States, of all ethnicities and backgrounds, are bringing back human rights activism, which dates back to the civil rights movement in the 1960s, which influenced the anti-war movement that was ignited during the American War on Vietnam.

The Gaza Solidarity Encampment at Columbia University, which instigated the domino effect of pro-Palestine protests in universities across America, is more than just a wave of uproar against the US government's military and financial support for "Israel's" genocide in Gaza. It represents the call to action, mirroring the voice of power, which, in turn, gives voice to resistance against injustice.

However, the domino effect is sending the US government into a spiral of panic. Why?

Complex yet simply put, student activism is making a comeback, through civil disobedience and peaceful protests, to challenge the imperialist system that uses the academic institution as a tool of social control to enforce its ideologies and conceal the failures of its own history and present. 

And being "woke" is sort of the boogeyman of the government, because the term itself challenges the government and looks it dead in the eye.

'By all means necessary' and peacefully

Student demonstrations, regardless of how peaceful they are, have always been a bone for the government to pick with ever since the 1968 protests at Columbia against the war in Vietnam. Other universities like the University of Michigan and NYU followed suit, and thus the anti-war movement gained traction and the attention of the American youth. 

As of last week, the Morningside campus of Columbia has been the stage of the Gaza Solidarity Encampment where tents have been set up by students, housing posters calling for the end of the siege and genocide in Gaza encouraged by Western allies. The on-site encampment was the venue of multiple forms of protests such as teach-ins (which began in the 1960s Vietnam protests), dances, and poetry readings, while other students were seen completing assignments and painting. 

Then comes the crackdown at the hands of New York's finest, the NYPD. Picture this: America has a problem, instead of resorting to ways to solve the problem, who are they going to call? The police.

Columbia students, during their peaceful protests, have been calling for the complete divestment of the university from ties with "Israel" and the occupation's business entities. 

However, in a shocking turn of events, NYPD Chief John Chell revealed that it was the University's President Nemat "Minouche" Shafik (of Egyptian descent, by the way) who called the police after calling the demonstration a “clear and present danger.”

“To put this in perspective, the students that were arrested were peaceful, offered no resistance whatsoever, and were saying what they wanted to say in a peaceful manner," he said.

Let's go back 235 years, to the formation of the US Constitution, specifically the First Amendment, which states that "Congress shall make no law...abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances."

So, rather than meeting the demands of their students, university administrations have been obeying the demands of their donors and political affiliates. To get down to the law side of things, universities could be sued for violating the First Amendment, which gives the students the natural right to express and advocate against policies by the US government freely. 

Shafik, Columbia University's President, is facing calls by students, faculty members, and even lawmakers to resign or face censure over her decision to call NYPD and arrest over 150 students for exercising their right to free speech. 

Here's the funny part of this whole shebang: The authorities, be they police or academics, have been weaponizing anti-semitism, claiming "intimidating" behavior from the students. After all, waving the anti-semitism card is a game the US is a professional at playing. 

Do you want to speak up against the rape of women in Gaza by Israeli forces? You're anti-semitic. What, you're against the blocking of aid by "Israel" into Gaza? You're anti-semitic. Did you say you're an anti-Zionist human rights advocate? I guess this also makes you anti-semitic, by US standards that is... 

Capitalist combat

In an interview for Al Mayadeen English, Maryam Iqbal, a student at Columbia's Barnard College and an organizer of the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) group, stated, "I believe that as students at an American institution, we have an inherent complicity in the genocide of the Palestinian people because our tuition and tax dollars are paying for it. And we have to fight with everything in us against our complicity. "

She reveals that not only was she arrested, but she was "suspended and evicted" from her housing by Columbia University.

She tells other students, "We want you to learn from our tactics and occupy buildings, occupy spaces and say I'm all eyes on that right now. I don't want people to center on Columbia because this should not only be about Columbia. It's not about us. It's about Palestine."

In the latest news, just today, Shafik imposed an ultimatum on students peacefully protesting against the Israeli genocide in Gaza: either reach an agreement with the administration to end the encampment or the school would resort to a different approach to dismantle it - by Monday midnight. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan recently announced, in light of the events, that it would permit free expression and peaceful protest during graduation in May but would stop "substantial disruption".

Basically, it's kind of set like this: you can speak on our own terms, and the "disruption" stops when we say so. 

When has intimidation and threat ever instilled fear into the minds of those who fear neither the book nor its author, neither the pen nor its holder, and neither the weapon nor its maker?

The privilege of being a student is having a voice and being the voice of those who are silenced by political agendas for cash and clout. The privilege of being a student is holding the pen as a weapon of resistance against imperialist ideologies and systemic injustice. 

The university or college campus represents the space for learning freedom, advocating for it, and therefore, using that space to educate society on it.  

Students across the US are rewriting history, just like those before them decades ago. These students are rewriting history to break free of colonial rhetoric and fight the war on Gaza through their pens and their voices. Instead of battlegrounds, they're fighting for the liberation of Gaza on their campuses. 

South Africa Calls for Investigation into Gaza Hospitals Mass Graves

By Al Mayadeen English

24 Apr 2024 17:27

Gaza's mass graves have prompted South Africa's DIRCO to call on international courts to investigate the atrocity and punish the perpetrators.

South Africa called for an investigation into mass graves discovered at multiple hospitals in the Gaza Strip, following the withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces (IOF) from medical facilities they had invaded. 

The African nation, which has launched a remarkable legal case against "Israel" at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), called on the international community to urgently lead a thorough and impartial investigation into the recent discovery of mass graves in several areas across the besieged territory. 

The recent discovery of mass graves inside the Nasser Medical Complex and Gaza's largest medical facility, the al-Shifa Medical Center, prompted the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) to call for an investigation. 

"South Africa is appalled by the recent grim discovery of a mass grave containing the remains of 202 Palestinian civilians at Nasser Hospital in Gaza," the department stated.

It is worth noting that the Nasser Hospital is located in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip or 25 km away from al-Shifa Hospital, which is located in Gaza City to the north. The discovery of mass graves in both hospitals points to the involvement of multiple units of the IOF, highlighting systematic practices entrenched within the occupation's military. 

According to authorities in the Gaza Strip, some of the individuals discovered at the Nasser Medical Complex were killed during the siege imposed on the hospital, which included direct attacks and air raids on its facilities. Others were executed en mass during the Israeli raid on the medical facility.

"These grim findings call for immediate and comprehensive investigations to ensure justice and accountability," the department added.

South Africa called on the international community to act to bring the criminal Israeli regime to justice, urging the ICJ to open a comprehensive investigation into the case. 

Earlier on Monday, Gaza's Civil Defense announced earlier that 332 bodies of martyrs were recovered from the Israeli-made mass graves in Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis since the withdrawal of the Israeli occupation forces from the area. 

Among the hundreds of bodies, the Israeli forces buried in mass graves at Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza was one of a decomposing body with its hands bound and clothes wrapped in medical scrubs.

Thousands of Palestinians remain missing under the rubble and in mass graves dug by occupation forces in the Gaza Strip, while the bodies of 34,262 were recovered and officially declared killed by authorities. 

Israeli occupation forces have shamelessly recorded their war crimes in the Gaza Strip, while Palestinians returning to raided areas were able to uncover the indescribable crimes of dozens of Palestinians either executed or who have had their bodies severely mutilated by the IOF.

Yet, only a few countries have taken action against the Israeli occupation for its crimes in Palestine, while the majority of the Western-led world order has continued its backing for the Israeli occupation. This has raised serious questions regarding the effectiveness and impartiality of the international legal system and the work of multiple international and humanitarian organizations, which have failed to live up to their duties in stopping the blatant genocide of Palestinians. 

Jamaica Officially Recognizes Palestine as a State

By Al Mayadeen English

24 Apr 2024 21:55

Jamaica's Foreign Minister has reported that the decision strengthened Jamaica's position toward a peaceful solution.

Jamaica has officially recognized Palestine as a state, citing long-standing concerns over "Israel's" continuing onslaught in the Gaza Strip and the catastrophic humanitarian situation in the besieged Strip.

Jamaica's Foreign Minister Kamina Johnson Smith verified the decision in a Wednesday statement emphasizing her country's "strong commitment" to the United Nations Charter's principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and the right to self-determination.

Smith expressed that by this recognition, “Jamaica strengthens its advocacy towards a peaceful solution," adding that the country still supports the "two-state solution" as the sole viable option to resolve this cause.

The ruling coalition made the suggestion in response to a resolution introduced by minor parties seeking for the rapid recognition of a Palestinian state.

She also stated that her administration believes that diplomatic engagement, rather than military action, is the most effective way to resolve the situation.

Smith reiterated Jamaica's support for a quick ceasefire in Gaza, improved access to humanitarian supplies, and long-term stability in the area.

Days ago, the Republic of Barbados, through its Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Trade Kerrie Symmonds, officially announced that it has "made the determination that the time is ripe for us to have a formal diplomatic recognition of the State of Palestine," becoming the 140th UN member country to do so.

Symmonds proclaimed, "How can we say we want a two-state solution if we do not recognize Palestine as a state?"

Moreover, Barbados stressed that it will maintain its relationship with "Israel" and that the most recent decision to formally recognize Palestine as a state will not affect the country's bilateral relations with Tel Aviv.

The Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates welcomed the decision and urged nations that have not yet done so to make the decision immediately and demonstrate the international community's determination to end the Palestinian people's suffering.

US vetoes bid for Palestine's full membership status at UNSC

The United States vetoed a decision to award Palestine full membership status in the United Nations, in a meeting of the UN Security Council on Thursday, Al Mayadeen's correspondent reported. 

Washington lobbied several nations to vote against the proposal, this past week, however, its efforts failed to produce the sought-after results, as 12 nations in the UNSC voted for awarding Palestine full membership status. 

Two other nations abstained from voting, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, leaving the US stranded with only no vote in the UNSC. Being a permanent member of the UNSC, a US no-vote would nullify any proposal, even if it had garnered the full backing of all other members. France's representative in the UN said that the country backed the proposal after it was reported that Paris abstained from voting. 

US Facing Back-to-back Setbacks in Crucial Part of the World: WaPo

By Al Mayadeen English

24 Apr 2024 16:38

As the formerly colonized nations boot out their colonizers, Russia and China are welcomed to the Sahel region.

The Washington Post wrote on Wednesday that at the end of last week, the United States notified the leadership in Niger that it would honor its request to withdraw US forces from the country, adding that reports emerged indicating that authorities in Chad had sent a letter earlier this month to the US defense attaché stationed there, ordering the United States to cease activities at a base that accommodates French troops.

According to the report, the possible withdrawal of a contingent of US Special Forces stationed in Chad would represent another setback for Western hegemony in the Sahel.

In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, successive coups have toppled the governments. These coups have been accompanied by resentment toward France, the former colonial power, and a shift toward seeking support from Russia and China. That said, the report explains that the current government in Niger has decisively steered the impoverished nation away from Western influence, expelling French troops and moving toward reducing the significant US presence in the country's desert regions.

“The agreement will spell the end of a US troop presence that totaled more than 1,000 and throw into question the status of a $110 million US air base that is only six years old,” the report detailed.

'Africa is one place where the US is losing'

The report referenced the Le Monde newspaper, which outlined the events leading up to the deployment of approximately 100 African Corps officers, which had maintained a widespread and opaque presence across Africa before its dissolution late last year.

“Their official mission was to train Niger’s army, particularly in the use of a Russian-supplied anti-aircraft defense system,” the French newspaper noted, adding that “three months earlier, Niger’s PM had flown to Tehran to outline plans for closer cooperation with Iran, without providing any details of the nature of the envisioned contracts. This was a clear cause for concern for Western countries, particularly the US.”

The Wall Street Journal was more blunt in its editorial, saying, “In the new era of great power competition, Africa is one place where the US is losing.”

Chinese, Russian approval in West Africa

In the report, The Washington Post details that the country’s junta announced that a Chinese state oil company had made an advance $400 million payment for crude purchases from Niger’s Agadem field. The deal, structured with further interest payments to the Chinese company, would help Niger’s cash-strapped government reckon with mounting domestic debts, according to the report. 

Mentioned in the report, some Nigeriens were quoted in the capital of Niamey after years of overweening French interest saying, “Why is it a problem for the Americans and France that the Russians are helping us?” Abdoulaye Oussein, 51, said. “I think we’re free to make our own choices.”

The report included a new poll from Gallup that recorded strong approval for Russia and China in many parts of the Sahel. “Last year, China recorded its highest approval rating in Africa in over a decade,” Julie Ray, managing editor for world news at Gallup, said. “It picked up substantial support in countries in Western Africa — which helped nudge it ahead of the US by two percentage points.”

Niger Determined to Expel US Forces, Diplomat Says - Exclusive

By Al Mayadeen English

24 Apr 2024 00:29

A former Nigerien diplomat tells Al Mayadeen his country is determined to expel US forces from Niger and establish stronger ties with the east.

Niger is determined to expel US forces from its territory, Nigerien diplomat Ali Tassa told Al Mayadeen on Tuesday.

"Washington initially wanted to negotiate the continuation of an air base, but the Nigerian government refused," Tassa underlined.

He stressed that Niger was open to Russia, China, Iran, and any country that respects its sovereignty, adding that his country is strengthening its relations with Moscow. 

Niger is "interested in strengthening its army to confront terrorism," Tassa said.

Withdrawal discussions started

US Defense Department spokesperson Patrick Ryder said today that the US and Niger have started discussions for the orderly withdrawal of US servicemen from Niger. 

During a press briefing, Ryder said "What I would say is that we can confirm that discussions have begun between the United States and Niger for the orderly withdrawal of US forces from the country."

He added that the US Defense Department and the US Africa Command will take part in the withdrawal discussions with the Nigerian Government. 

As for Western Africa and the Sahel, he said that the Pentagon would continue to monitor for possible threats to make sure that US personnel, assets, and interests are protected throughout the region. 

"We’re going to continue to work with countries throughout the region when it comes to addressing terrorism threats throughout the region," Ryder said.

Officials stated that the United States agreed to withdraw its over 1,000 troops from Niger on April 19, altering its stance in West Africa, where the country had a significant drone base.

This came after a US Air Force military official in Niger filed a complaint to Congress requesting an investigation into the activities of US embassy staff in the country. Additionally, a segment in the document filed by the officer included a request for assistance in withdrawing military personnel from the country.

Last month, the State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said that ongoing discussions between the transitional government in Niger and the United States examined the withdrawal of US troops from the African nation's grounds and the steps that would follow.

When asked about the possibility of concluding US soldiers' presence in Niger, Patel replied, "This is one of the things that we continue to be discussing with them [CNSP] and discussing next steps."

Before that, Niger declared an abrupt end to a longstanding military agreement with the United States in a fiery public address by the spokesperson of the Nigerien military.

The accord, which facilitated the "illegal" presence of American military personnel and civilian staff from the Department of Defense within the Nigerien borders, was severed by Niger as being unfair and a tool used by the US to undermine the nation's sovereignty.

Tensions between the two nations escalated following the ascent of Niger's military junta to power in July 2023, an event condemned by the US as a coup. Subsequently, the US began withdrawing a substantial portion of its troops stationed in Niger.

Senegal's President Calls for 'Rethought' EU Partnership

23 Apr 2024 08:28

Senegal is looking to reform its economic relations with the European Union, cutting overexploitation of the country's resources.

Senegal's new President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called for a "rethought" relationship with the EU during a meeting with European Council President Charles Michel. 

Faye was inaugurated as president on April 2, after running a campaign where he pledged radical reform and promised to restore national sovereignty over key sectors. His election comes in the context of a quickly-changing region that has seen several successful movements against Western interests in the past few years. 

Speaking at a joint press conference with Michel on Monday, Faye pointed to "dense and multifaceted" cooperation with Europe. However, the president stressed that Senegal wants a "rethought" and "renovated" partnership with the continent. 

"[We want a partnership] capable of supporting the innovative dynamic we want to imprint on our relations," Faye underlined. 

The head of state recently launched an initiative to renegotiate oil and gas contracts, hoping to do the same with fishing agreements signed with the European Union (EU). 

Fishing holds a significant position in Senegal's economy and has been a key exploit for European entities, which has exacerbated the downturn of the country's marine stocks.

In the conference, Faye said that his government would pursue a model of encouraging internal development, focused on agriculture, livestock, and fishing. At the same time, Faye promised that his government would look to strengthen the country's railways, electrical grid, telecommunication, and roads. 

"European investors whose companies have recognized skills in these different sectors are welcome," he explained.

On the other hand, Michel said Europe had an "objective interest in Senegal being able to meet the challenges of development, economic emergence, and improvement of the living conditions of the people."

For the first time since its independence, Senegal saw the victory of a Pan-African opposition leader, who had promised key reforms for the previous French colony. The influence of the colonial powers in the African continent has persisted post-independence of most African countries, especially in West Africa.

Europe has held a tight grip over resources and security in the region, exploiting said nations in long-term contracts and unfavorable agreements. This has resulted in multiple shifts in positions of power in the Sahel, which have been directly detrimental to France and the European Union. 

Ethiopia-South Sudan Relations on Rise

April 24, 2024

Hold experience sharing to bring women’s holistic empowerment

ADDIS ABABA – The Ethiopia-South Sudan bilateral relations will be encouraged through their partnership on security and peace, education, infrastructure development, and women empowerment arenas, the House of Peoples’ Representatives (HoPR) said.

The HoPR Foreign Relations and Peace Affairs Standing Committee Deputy Chairperson Fathe Mahdi (PhD) made the above remark yesterday while holding an experience sharing program with South Sudanese delegation.

Speaking at the event, the deputy chairperson noted that Ethiopia and South Sudan have a long standing relationship that has been invigorated in various areas during the past over many years.

Ethiopia has a strong belief in mutual development through utilizing natural resources in a fair and reasonable manner and it gives due attention to make mega projects including the Abbay Dam (GERD) benefits neighboring countries. Besides, Ethiopia gives due emphasis to road construction to connect the two countries whilst 250 South Sudan Students obtained scholarship so far.

“The experience sharing would address women challenges and bring adequate outcome in politics, economic, and social development,” Fathe elaborated.

South Sudanese Gender, Child and Social Welfare Minister Aya Benjamin, who is also the leader of the delegation, said, “Ethiopia is our second home and we prefer the better even in the time of crisis.”

She also stated that the experience sharing program would bring significant roles in ensuring women political and economic empowerment whilst due attention has been attached to children rights.

HoPR Women Caucus Kimiya Junedi on her part said that the main aim of the experience sharing is increasing women participation in peace keeping, development, diplomacy, decision making, and the likes.

“Previously, we draw important lesson from South Africa and Kenya in the issue of women empowerment while we are sharing our experience to South Sudanese delegation today. Such programs will play a significant role in realizing the common agenda that to ensure women empowerment and children rights at large.”

BY MESERET BEHAILU

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD WEDNESDAY 24 APRIL 2024

Congo Brazzaville Declares Mpox Epidemic

WEDNESDAY APRIL 24 2024

Symptoms of mpox include fever, aches and skin lesions. PHOTO | FILE | NMG

Republic of the Congo has declared an epidemic of mpox after 19 cases were confirmed across five departments, including the capital Brazzaville.

No deaths have yet been recorded, Health Minister Gilbert Mokoki said in a statement on Tuesday.

He called on the public to take precautions including avoiding close contact with suspected cases, avoiding contact with animals and avoiding handling game meat with bare hands.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) has named the virus mpox to replace the older term monkeypox, citing concerns of stigma and racism associated with the name.

Mpox was first detected in humans in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo in 1970, according to the WHO.

Symptoms include fever, aches and skin lesions.

In 2022, the WHO declared an outbreak that spread to Europe and North America a global health emergency.

Chad Elections: Four Things Mahamat Déby Has Done to Stay in Power

WEDNESDAY APRIL 24 2024

Chad's interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby.

By THE CONVERSATION

Chad’s presidential election campaigns officially kicked off on April 14, 2024 in the capital city, N'Djamena.

Transitional President Mahamat Idriss Déby held a large meeting on the Place de la Nation directly in front of the presidential palace. In attendance were members of the government, the military and various political parties, identifiable, in the blistering heat, by their different coloured shirts.

Prime Minister Succès Masra, meanwhile, led a large convoy of cars and motorbikes through the city and was accompanied by a crowd of mainly young followers.

Déby and Masra, both in their early 40s, were cheered by their respective crowds.

The election will take place on May 6, 2024, and end a three-year transition period led by Mahamat Déby after the sudden death of his father, Idriss Déby Itno, in April 2021.

I am a researcher on democratisation in Sub-Saharan Africa, especially Chad. I have been closely following Chadian politics, including the transition phase, for many years. I would argue that Chad’s three-year transition programme had a single objective: the long-term retention of power by Mahamat Déby.

This objective has been pursued in four ways: violent oppression and intimidation; composition of the electoral institutions; approval of presidential candidates; and campaign strategies.

Violent oppression and intimidation

During the 30-year reign of the late Idriss Déby Itno, Chadians largely got used to a rather autocratic regime. Democratic liberties and the right to freedom of expression were repeatedly suppressed. Arrests of demonstrators were common.

Some opposition leaders were killed. Ibni Oumar Mahamat Saleh, for example, was killed in 2008.

Since Mahamat Idriss Déby came into office, two incidents have shown that violence against opposition voices has continued – even more ruthlessly.

On October 20, 2022, a day now known as Black Thursday in Chad, hundreds of mainly young Chadians, protesting against the extension of Mahamat Idriss Deby’s transitional government tenure, were shot and killed by government forces.

The second incident was the assassination of Yaya Dillo, a cousin of Mahamat Déby and one of his fiercest opponents.

Dillo, leader of the party Parti Socialiste sans Frontières (Party of Socialists without Borders) was shot in his party headquarters in N’Djamena on February 28, 2024. Official statements on his death blamed him for a deadly attack on the country’s security agency.

Composition of electoral institutions

The new constitution adopted in a controversial referendum in December 2023 demanded the creation of two electoral institutions before the electoral process. The institutions are L’Agence nationale de gestion des élections (National Election Management Agency) and the Constitutional Council.

The election management agency is responsible for organising the election while the constitutional council vets candidates for the elections as well as the results.

Mahamat Déby appointed members of these two bodies on January 30, 2024 for seven-year terms, which means they might serve him in two elections. All of them were loyal to his father in the past and have been members of the former ruling party Mouvement Patriotique du Salut for many years.

Former minister of justice and spokesperson of the former ruling party, Jean-Bernard Padaré, was appointed president of the constitutional council. Padaré was accused of corruption in 2014.

Retired president of the supreme court Ahmed Bartchiret, also a member of the former ruling party, chairs the election management agency.

It is my view that, in order to ensure his continuous grip on power, Mahamat Déby appointed faithful and long serving confidants of his father into these two important agencies for the management of the May 6 election.

Approval of presidential candidates

Between March 6-24, anyone interested in vying for the presidency was expected to submit nomination forms. Candidates had to pay 10,000,000 CFA ($16,258) to the treasury. At the close of the exercise, 20 candidates expressed interest but only 10 were approved by the constitutional council appointed by Mahamat Déby, who is also a candidate.

Disqualified candidates were given official reasons including an incorrect birth certificate or a missing document or photograph.

As expected, the most prominent qualified candidates were Mahamat Déby and his prime minister, Masra. It will be the first time a president and the prime minister he appointed run against each other in a Chadian election.

Other approved candidates include former prime minister Albert Pahimi Padacké of the party RNDT Le Réveil. He served as prime minister to Mahamat Déby in 2021 and 2022. He previously served Mahamat’s father between 2016 and 2018.

The only female candidate is Lydie Beassemda. She contested the presidency in 2021 and finished third.

The regional origin of the approved candidates is also an indication of how Mahamat Déby’s transition is simply working to retain him in the presidency. Out of the 10 approved candidates, only Mahamat Déby and Yacine Abderamane Sakine of the minority party Parti Réformiste are from the northern region. The other eight candidates are from the southern part of the country.

As elections in the past have shown, Chadians prefer to vote for politicians from their own region. Based on this projection, Mahamat Déby seemed poised to win most of the votes from the northern region while votes of the southern region would be split between the other eight candidates.

Some voters may abstain from the polls as the opposition coalition Groupe de concertation des acteurs politiques (Concertation Group of Political Actors) and civil society groups like the Wakit Tama call for a boycott. They are challenging the legitimacy of the polls.

Given this scenario, Déby could win the majority of the votes cast in the first round of voting. Should this not be the case, the constitution says there would be a second round of balloting between the first two candidates. The candidate with a simple majority wins the second round.

Campaign strategies

All candidates are confident of victory. Their campaign promises do not differ greatly. They promise better living conditions – primarily the supply of electricity and water, education, more jobs and future prospects for the youth – as well as good governance, reconciliation and cohabitation.

Mahamat Déby is additionally playing the stability card, which he has used throughout the transition period to justify his takeover and continuous hold on to power.

Mahamat Déby’s candidature is backed by a broad coalition called Coalition pour un Tchad Uni (Coalition for a United Chad). It is made up of more than 200 political parties and more than 1,000 nongovernmental organisations. The coalition is led by the former ruling party Mouvement Patriotique du Salut.

Mahamat Déby agreed to be the coalition’s presidential candidate on March 2, 2024. The opposition is accusing the coalition of using state funds for their campaign.

Masra, leader of the opposition party Les Transformateurs, was one of Mahamat Déby’s strongest opponents until his return to Chad in October 2023 and was later appointed as prime minister.

As a presidential candidate, he struggles to campaign as someone independent of the Mahamat Déby transitional government. In his campaign speeches, Masra often refers to the past while carefully avoiding the past few months of being prime minister, a time when the cost of living rose due to increases in fuel prices and N'Djamena experienced the worst water and electricity crises ever.

Former prime minister Padacké refers to precisely these points in his campaign and accuses Mahamat Déby and Masra of being incapable of managing the country. If elected, Padacké promises to run for only one term. He avoids mentioning the fact that he was part of the late Idriss Déby Itno’s government.

In the final analysis…

Mahamat Déby is very likely to win the elections. Chad will see another Déby government.

Meanwhile, focus on the presidential elections distracts attention from the fact that neither parliamentary nor local elections are planned in the near future. It is likely that Mahamat Déby will follow his father’s example here too: legitimisation through presidential elections.

Under the late Déby, the last parliamentary elections were held in 2011; local elections were only held once.

By Helga Dickow - Senior Researcher at the Arnold Bergstraesser Institut, Freiburg Germany, University of Freiburg

Yemeni Forces Strike US, Israeli Vessels in Fresh Pro-Palestinian Operations

Wednesday, 24 April 2024 11:18 PM

Brigadier General Yahya Saree, spokesman for Yemen’s Armed Forces

Yemen’s Armed Forces have targeted two American vessels and an Israeli one in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, who are enduring a United States-backed Israeli war of genocide.

The forces’ spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree announced the operations in a statement on Wednesday.

The first operation saw the forces targeting “the American ship (Maersk Yorktown) in the Gulf of Aden, with a number of suitable naval missiles,” he said, noting that “the hit was accurate.”

Subsequently, the forces carried out drone strikes against “an American destroyer” in the same maritime area and “an Israeli ship (MSC Veracruz) in the Indian Ocean,” Saree added.

“Both operations have achieved their objectives successfully.”

Yemen has been staging numerous such strikes since October 7, when the Israeli regime unleashed the war in response to a retaliatory operation by Gaza’s resistance groups.

The war has so far claimed the lives of 34,183 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and wounded a total of 77,143 others.

The United States has been providing the regime with maximal military and intelligence support since the onset of the warfare. Washington has also vetoed several UN Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire in the brutal military onslaught.

According to Saree, “The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that they will continue to prevent Israeli navigation or any navigation heading to the ports of occupied Palestine in the Red and Arabian Seas, as well as in the Indian Ocean.”

Top Yemeni official Mohammed Ali al-Houthi says his country’s naval forces will not allow the US military to turn the Red Sea into its backyard.

The operations, he added, would last until the regime ceased the aggression and a simultaneous siege that it has been employing against the coastal sliver.

Region to Benefit from Iran-Sri Lanka Cooperation: Raeisi

Wednesday, 24 April 2024 4:41 PM

Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi (center-left) is seen in this April 24, 2024 photo along his Sri Lankan counterpart Ranil Wickremesinghe during an official visit to the island nation’s capital of Colombo. (Photo via IRNA)

Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi says improved economic and political relations between Iran and Sri Lanka would benefit the two countries and the Indian Ocean region.

Raeisi made the remarks in a joint press conference with Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe in the Island nation’s capital of Colombo on Wednesday.

He said that Iran is ready to supply technical and engineering services to Sri Lanka to help the country boost its economic and industrial infrastructure.

The president made the comments hours after he opened a large hydroelectric project in Badulla, located some 230 kilometers to the east of Colombo. The Uma Oya Multipurpose Development Project, which is worth over $500 million, has been largely designed and built by Iranian companies to help Sri Lanka overcome its electricity and irrigation problems.  

Raeisi said Iran had progressed in various fields of technology over the past years despite being subject to a harsh regime of foreign sanctions.

President Raeisi attends the inauguration of a multi-purpose project built by Iranian contractors in Sri Lanka.

He said that Iran and Sri Lanka will soon form an intergovernmental committee to significantly boost their trade and economic ties.

The Sri Lanka president, for his part, said in the joint press conference with Raeisi that his country has relied on Iran’s support to weather a major economic crisis in recent years.

Wickremesinghe said that Sri Lanka and Iran had agreed during Raeisi's visit to teh country to cooperate more on issues related to the Indian Ocean and on joint initiatives in the United Nations.

He said that five memorandums of understanding signed earlier in the day between Sri Lankan and Iranian government ministers would lead to a further expansion in relations between the two countries.

Raeisi arrived in Colombo early on Wednesday after a three-day visit to Pakistan and as part of his administration’s drive to boost ties with Asian countries. The short visit to Sri Lanka is the first by an Iranian president in 16 years.

Leader: Iran’s Progress in Arms Sector Example of Turning Sanctions, Hostilities into Opportunity

Wednesday, 24 April 2024 10:53 AM

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei addresses a group of Iranian workers on the occasion of Labor Week in Tehran, Iran, on April 24, 2023. (Photo by leader.ir)

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei says the Islamic Republic’s remarkable achievements in arms production attest to the fact that a “lively nation” can turn sanctions into opportunities.

Ayatollah Khamenei made the remarks on Wednesday as he received a group of workers from across the country on the occasion of Labor Week.

The Leader said the anti-Iran sanctions aimed to put the Islamic Republic in a “tight spot” to force it to toe the line of imperialism and colonialism, asserting that, “It is self-evident that the Islamic Establishment, the Islamic zeal and a great nation with an Islamic history will by no means submit to such bullying.”

Ayatollah Khamenei added, “A lively nation creates opportunities for itself out of the enemy’s hostilities, a clear example of which is in the [Islamic Republic’s] arms sector. In other sectors, great progress has been achieved as well despite pressures.”

Underlining that the sanctions will fail to bring the Iranian nation to its knees as it has not pinned hopes on help from outside of the borders, the Leader said, “This spirit needs to be lifted.”

“The Iranian nation must showcase its strength through work, action and national unity,” Ayatollah Khamenei noted.

Stressing that the main goal of the US and the West in imposing sanctions on Iran is the complete submission and subjugation of the Islamic Establishment and nation, the Leader said, “The great nation of Iran which has historical roots and the Islamic Republic will not yield to bullying and excessive demands, and will reach a bright horizon in the future by turning sanctions into opportunities for progress and prosperity.”

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei addresses a group of Iranian workers on the occasion of Labor Week in Tehran, Iran, on April 24, 2023. (Photo by leader.ir)

Elsewhere in his remarks, the Leader pointed to the Iranian labor community and stressed that the country’s authorities are responsible for the job security of workers.

“In a period, we were beset by the closure of large factories, [but] thanks to the efforts by the authorities, many closed workshops were reopened in the past two years, and this must continue,” the Leader said, adding that power will increase in a society where there is work.

Ayatollah Khamenei also expressed his sincere gratitude to Iranian workers for their efforts and decency, and wished for the promotion of the country’s labor community.

Iran Dismisses US Allegation of ‘Malicious Cyber Activity’

Wednesday, 24 April 2024 4:44 PM

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Nasser Kana’ani

Iran has categorically dismissed Washington’s “unfounded” allegation of “malicious cyber activity” leveled against some Iranian individuals and firms, urging the United States to reconsider its interventionist policies.

On Wednesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kan’ani said “through labeling various Iranian individuals and entities with unfounded allegations, American authorities cannot deflect the growing wave of international criticism of US policies in supporting war crimes and genocide by the Zionist regime in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, as well as violent crackdown on protesters within the US.”

Kan’ani’s remarks came a day after the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions against four Iranian individuals and two Iranian companies over the abovementioned allegation.

EU foreign ministers agree to expand the bloc’s drone sanctions to cover Iran’s missiles exports.

“We advise the American government to, instead of leveling baseless allegations against other countries and nations, put an end to its military and financial backing of the apartheid and occupying Zionist regime and stop its international policies in support of the entity,” Kan’ani stated.

The Iranian official said the pro-Israel policies of the United States are detrimental to the “oppressed Palestinian nation.”

Following Iran’s massive missile and drone attack against Israel on April 13, the United States, Britain and the European Union have all imposed new sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

The retaliatory Iranian Operation True Promise was conducted against the backdrop of Israel’s deadly strike on Iran’s diplomatic mission in Damascus on April 1.

Rwanda’s Hope Hostel Once Housed Young Genocide Survivors. Now It’s Ready for Migrants From Britain

BY IGNATIUS SSUUNA

3:58 PM EDT, April 24, 2024

KIGALI, Rwanda (AP) — Rwanda says it’s ready to receive migrants from the United Kingdom after British Parliament this week approved a long-stalled and controversial bill seeking to stem the tide of people crossing the English Channel in small boats by deporting some of them to the East African country.

There is even a place ready and waiting for the migrants — a refurbished Hope Hostel in the vibrant upscale neighborhood of Kagugu, an area of the Rwandan capital of Kigali that is home to many expats and several international schools.

The hostel once housed college students whose parents died in the 1994 genocide, this African nation’s most horrific period in history when an estimated 800,000 Tutsi were killed by extremist Hutu in massacres that lasted over 100 days.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged the deportation flights would begin in July but has refused to provide details or say about how many people would be deported.

Rwanda government’s deputy spokesperson Alain Mukuralinda told The Associated Press on Tuesday that authorities here have been planning for the migrants’ arrival for two years.

“Even if they arrive now or tomorrow, all arrangements are in place,” he said.

The plan was long held up in British courts and by opposition from human rights activists who say it is illegal and inhumane. It envisages deporting to Rwanda some of those who enter the U.K. illegally and migrant advocates have vowed to continue to fight against the plan.

The measure is also meant to be a deterrent to migrants who risk their lives in leaky, inflatable boats in hopes that they will be able to claim asylum once they reach Britain. The U.K. also signed a new treaty with Rwanda to beef up protections for migrants, and adopted new legislation declaring Rwanda to be a safe country.

“The Rwanda critics and the U.K. judges who earlier said Rwanda is not a safe country have been proven wrong,” Mukuralinda said. “Rwanda is safe.”

The management at the four-story Hope Hostel says the facility is ready and can accommodate 100 people at full capacity. The government says it will serve as a transit center and that more accommodations would be made available as needed.

Thousands of migrants arrive in Britain every year.

After they arrive from Britain, the migrants will be shown to their rooms to rest, after which they will be offered food and given some orientation points about Kigali and Rwanda, said hostel manager Ismael Bakina.

Tents will be set up within the hostel’s compound for processing their documentation and for various briefings. The site is equipped with security cameras, visible across the compound.

Within the compound are also entertainment places, a mini-soccer field, a basketball and a volleyball court as well as a red-carpeted prayer room. For those who want to light up, “there is even a smoking room,” Bakina explained.

Meals will be prepared in the hostel’s main kitchen but provisions are also being made for those who want to prepare their own meals, he said. The migrants will be free to walk outside the hostel and even visit the nearby Kigali city center.

“We will have different translators, according to (their) languages,” Bakina added, saying they include English and Arabic.

The government has said the migrants will have their papers processed within the first three months. Those who want to remain in Rwanda will be allowed to do so while authorities will also assist those who wish to return to their home countries.

While in Rwanda, migrants who obtain legal status — presumably for Britain — will also be processed, authorities have said, though it’s unclear what that means exactly.

For those who choose to stay, Mukurilinda said Rwanda’s government will bear full financial and other responsibilities for five years, after which they will be considered integrated into the society.

At that point, they can start managing on their own.

Truce Crumbles in Sudan Army's Last Darfur Holdout

TUESDAY APRIL 23 2024

Drone footage shows birds in the foreground as clouds of black smoke billow over Bahri, also known as Khartoum North, Sudan on May 1, 2023.

Attacks around the Sudanese city of al-Fashir have shattered a truce that protected it from a year-old war, leading to warnings of a new wave of inter-communal violence and humanitarian risks for 1.6 million residents crammed into the North Darfur capital.

Al-Fashir is the last major city in the vast, Western Darfur region not under control of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF and its allies swept through four other Darfur state capitals last year and were blamed for a campaign of ethnically driven killings against non-Arab groups and other abuses in West Darfur.

The fight for al-Fashir, a historic centre of power, could be more protracted, inflame ethnic tensions that surfaced in the early-2000s conflict in the region and reach across Sudan's border with Chad, say residents, aid agencies and analysts.

Al-Fashir's population includes an estimated half a million people displaced during that earlier conflict, when the army, assisted by Arab militias that evolved into the RSF, put down a rebellion by non-Arab rebel groups.

About half a million more people moved into the city during the war that broke out between the army and the RSF in the capital Khartoum in April 2023, as long-simmering tensions over integrating the two forces came to a head.

As the war spread to other parts of the country, local leaders brokered a truce in al-Fashir, with the RSF confined to eastern areas of the city while the former rebel groups stayed neutral.

But the arrangement fell apart after the RSF took the town of Melit this month, effectively blockading al-Fashir.

Witnesses say the army has reinforced supplies and troops, including through an air drop to its base in the city, unlike in other state capitals where soldiers quickly fled.

Two prominent former rebel groups, Minni Minawi's Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and Jibril Ibrahim's Justice and Equality Movement, said they would also defend against the RSF.

Many non-Arabs in al-Fashir are gripped with fear.

"We don't know what to do," 39-year-old resident Mohamed Gasim told Reuters by phone. "Al-Fashir is dangerous, but leaving is more dangerous."

Villagers razed

Even before the truce collapsed, occasional skirmishes killed more than 220 people in al-Fashir in the last year, according to Ismail Khareef, an activist in Abu Shouk, one of the displacement camps that dot the city.

Clashes on April 16 left at least 18 dead, Khareef said. Gunfire and projectiles, including from army warplanes, have fallen on homes, he and other residents say.

Since the start of the month, at least 11 villages on al-Fashir's outskirts have been razed, according to satellite imagery obtained by the Yale Humanitarian Research Lab. At least 36,000 have been displaced, the United Nations estimates.

Local activists and an SLA spokesperson blamed the RSF and allied militias, who have been known to use arson in past attacks, including in West Darfur. The activists said that survivors of the attacks reported around 10 people killed and that the attackers used ethnic insults.

The RSF denied attacking al-Fashir and said it was careful to keep clashes away from civilians in the city, accusing the army and allied groups of attacking it on the outskirts. The RSF has previously denied responsibility for ethnic violence in Darfur.

The army did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Al-Fashir itself has not had functioning running water or power lines for a year, said Awadalla Hamid, Darfur director for Practical Action, speaking to Reuters from the city, where few international humanitarians remain. Only one public hospital is functioning, while displaced people are crammed into schools and public buildings, he said.

Jerome Tubiana, an expert on Darfur and advisor to medical charity MSF, said all-out fighting "risks already complicating further humanitarian access, at a time where available data shows al-Fashir is suffering of an extremely serious food crisis".

Spillover risk

Since the war began, only small quantities of aid have entered al-Fashir, the only army-approved conduit for shipments to other parts of Darfur. Residents say that though markets are functioning, the RSF's control of the main road has caused prices for fuel, water and other goods to soar.

Recent tensions and violence around al-Fashir have also raised concerns about a wider spillover.

The former rebel groups fighting alongside the army hail from the Zaghawa tribe, which reaches across the border into Chad, counting Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Deby as a member.

Arab and non-Arab tribes like the Zaghawa have long clashed over land and valuable resources in Darfur, analysts say.

Complicating matters is the entrance of the forces belonging to Musa Hilal, a leading Arab commander from the early 2000s and rival of RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, despite hailing from the same tribe. A spokesperson confirmed a video of Hilal addressing forces in North Darfur on Monday but said that it was too soon to say if the forces would join the fight in al-Fashir or elsewhere.

"Even if there was a ceasefire between Saf and RSF this is way beyond them. There are scores being settled and tensions being renewed," said Jonas Horner, an independent Sudan analyst.

Access to the Sea: Reliable Path to Sustainable Economic Prosperity

April 23, 2024

The Red Sea is one of the most crucial yet geopolitically volatile places in the world. The region puts the neighboring countries in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East in an advantageous position to defend national interests. Many superpower nations across the globe have done everything to have a stake in the region. Name it the USA, China, Japan, France, or UAE; every nation has at least a military base to put boots on the ground.

The Horn of Africa and the Red Sea are also important for African countries to maintain their national interest and get every advantage that the regions provide. Those who have access to the sea have been benefiting more in the past years as other nations who want to be in the region pay millions of dollars to get and access any portion of the area.

Djibouti, Eritrea, and Somalia are obtaining a lot from their ports. On the other hand, countries that are still in the Horn region but with no sea access have faced several challenges to stay in the competition and secure their national interest. A nation with no port always has sovereignty and economic threats compared to the ones that have one.

At this point, one of the densely populated nations in Africa, Ethiopia has been left with no sea access for the last three decades facing myriads of bottlenecks.

Indeed, the country is playing a vital role in the region fostering regional integration. It has been involved in major regional issues like peace and security. Ethiopian soldiers have paid their blood and bone like no other nation to defend the region’s peace. Besides, the country is known for its successful diplomacy to live peacefully with its neighbors. It has shown its unchanged stand regarding regional integration and shared values for a better tomorrow.

With all the good deeds that the nation sacrificed for the region, Ethiopia has recently started to raise some bold questions about accessing the sea. Surprisingly, the country was seriously rejected and shifted in political cooperation. Some even started to work closely with Ethiopia’s historic enemies to reject Ethiopia’s call to sea access.

It is a fact that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD) has lately raised the desire to access the sea by applying a win-win and give-and-take approach with its neighboring countries. In good truth, Ethiopia has not hesitated to bring its mega projects like Abbay Dam and Ethio-telecom to the table for negotiation so that any country can get a share in any of its flagship projects and companies for its quest for sea access.

Keep knocking on nations’ doors rigorously, Ethiopia has finally got a positive response from Somaliland to get some land and access the sea. In return, Ethiopia pledged to support the latter in its quest to become a sovereign state coupled with letting some share form its asset. From the onset of the announcement of the agreement, nations from different corners of the world have reflected on their stand regarding the accord between the two parties.

Prominently, Somalia has fully rejected the agreement and asked other nations to stand by Somalia. Forgetting all the favors Ethiopia did to Somalia, the government of Somalia even sticks with some historic enemies of Ethiopia and with the ones who have no track record in regional integration in the Horn.

The accord between Ethiopia and Somaliland will bring economic and other benefits without harming the other. It is a fact that Ethiopia has been disadvantageous in the past years as the nation imports more than 90% of its commodities from outside. Such a deal paved the way for Ethiopia to economic and political supremacy and influence in the Horn and Red Sea. The country always believes in peace and fosters regional cooperation among its neighbors. Such a stand has been reflected in every endeavor of the country.

Having a stay recently with a local media, Peter Pham, a former U.S. Special Envoy for the Sahel and Great Lakes Regions of Africa, said that it is imperative to understand Ethiopia’s legitimate interests and needs to access the sea and ensure economic security for its people.

The former U.S. Special Envoy said Ethiopia has played a critical role in providing peace and security throughout the region. “It has every right to expect in return for that same goodwill and understanding for its legitimate interests and needs within terms of access to the sea and secure economic security for its people. It can’t all be a one-way street,” he stressed.

It is to be recalled that speaking of the MoU signed between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi, Pham stated that he has been very encouraged by the historic agreement from the very day of the announcement.

“Why am I so positive? First and foremost, I believe international relations have to be based upon reality not fiction, not fantasy, not wishful thinking but reality. And the reality is the geopolitics and economics of this Horn of Africa region, which is so vital and changing, shifting before our eyes; and we need to adjust to these.”

According to him, the second part of the reality is Ethiopia’s legitimate interest in having “what I call redundant port structures.” Additionally, Ethiopia is the world’s most populous landlocked state with 120 million people, and to date, Djibouti has been providing access to the country. However, he added that a great country with 120 million people should not rely on one outlet. The former U.S. Special Envoy further pointed out that as Ethiopia is looking for access to sea the Berbera Port makes sense economically.

“DP World has already invested in there, and the United Kingdom government is investing in phase two. There’s a road infrastructure, bringing up the port there.” There is an excellent runway; all sorts of things make that a compelling case, he added.

Moreover, Pham elaborated that Africa as a whole and this region in particular lacks critical infrastructure. “I think the key is that Africa as a whole, but this region in lacks critical infrastructure. So, I’m very much in favor of anything that contributes to whether ports, roads, energy, or electricity. Anything that adds to the stock, that helps create the conditions for economic growth and prosperity shared throughout the region is a positive development.”

BY DANIEL ALEMAYEHU

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD TUESDAY 23 APRIL 2024

Ethiopia’s Manufacturing Industries Registering Auspicious Outcomes: MoI

April 23, 2024

ADDIS ABABA – Propelling the national initiative, the manufacturing industries in Ethiopia have been setting example of coming up with promising and standard products, the Ministry of Industry (MoI) said.

MoI Minister Melaku Alebel made the above remark to local media in connection with the recently held “Let Ethiopia produce” initiative 10 KM street run.

Giving prime attention to the initiative, the minister pointed out that the manufacturing industry has been managing to curtail core dragging bottlenecks such as electric, financial, input, land supply among many others.

He said: “It (the movement” also strengthen and smoothen the cooperation between various stakeholders and institutions that are backing manufacturing industries. And, it has been contributing a lot to reshape the sector through streamlined strategy and policy frameworks.

Mentioning the minimal rate of annual budget allocation to the sector, the minister emphasized that the government has decided to redouble the amount with a view of invigorating the sector.

The ministry is also preparing channels of events and expos that are believed to foster the initiative and promote the products of the manufacturing industry. Industrial parks are currently manufacturing brand sporting textile products, thus, securing more forex.

Indeed, expos are also vital platforms to display hidden talents in athletics, promote the capacity of manufacturing sector and productivity in a meaningful manner to glitch the deep-rooted problems of the sector, he underscored.

The initiative has helped the industries to resume production, Melaku added.

Moreover, he expressed his ministry’s firm commitment to providing the necessary support to bring about a vibrant and influential manufacturing industry in the years to come.

Melaku has called on the government, media and other actors to exert their well-articulated support to the sector to play its huge role in job creation, export, fostering import substitution that help realize the nation’s economic development aspirations.

It is to be recalled that the initiative dubbed “Let Ethiopia produce”, which is a national manufacturing industry movement, was launched in May 2022 with the aim of accelerating competitiveness of the sector.

BY ASHENAFI ANIMUT

THE ETHIOPIAN HERALD TUESDAY 23 APRIL 2024

Ethiopia Armed Clashes Displace Over 50,000 People, UN Ocha Says

TUESDAY APRIL 23 2024

Members of the Amhara Special Forces dance in the Lalibela town of the Amhara Region, Ethiopia on January 25, 2022.

By XINHUA

The number of people displaced by armed clashes from rural areas in the north of Ethiopia has increased to more than 50,000 since April 13, according to local authorities, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (Ocha) said on Monday.

In a situation report issued on Monday, UN Ocha disclosed that most of the displaced people -- mostly women, children, and the elderly -- are still seeking refuge in the towns of Kobo and Sekota in the Amhara region.

The humanitarian situation is dire, with thousands of women and children in need of broad humanitarian support to survive.

Government and humanitarian partners have started providing food and health services, which remain inadequate due to limited resources.

On April 13 and 14, armed clashes occurred in Alamata town in Northern Ethiopia. An undetermined number of casualties were reported, while many civilians reportedly fled towards neighboring Kobo and Sekota, said UN Ocha in a previous report. 

Andrew Dabalen: Funding Squeeze Not Behind Africa Yet

MONDAY APRIL 22 2024

Andrew Dabalen is the World Bank’s Africa Region Chief Economist. PHOTO | POOL

By JULIANS AMBOKO

After close to 24 months without African economies being able to go to the global financial markets to raise debt due to high interest rates, Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Kenya have made a return in early 2024 raising $4.85 billion. But the World Bank now warns that escalating tensions in the Middle East risk reversing this new access and dampening investor appetite for frontier market debt. The World Bank Chief Economist for Africa Andrew Dabalen spoke to Julians Amboko.

The April 2024 Africa Pulse Report talks about a rebound in Africa’s economic growth momentum with 2024 expected to register 3.4 percent expansion. The same report talks about the rebound being fragile. It sounds like a mixed bag. From a risk standpoint, is the Bank largely skewed to the downside seeing more headwinds in 2024 or is it skewed on the upside seeing more tailwinds to proper growth?

The recovery that you have picked up on is primarily driven by private consumption because of declining inflation boosting household consumption. The other two drivers are investment and government consumption, and we see but they are largely subdued. Investments are subdued because of high interest rates while government consumption is subdued because of fiscal consolidation.

Risks, unfortunately, are mostly tilted towards the downside and for two reasons – one is external, being slower than expected global economic growth especially if activity in Europe and China gets subdued, and the other is domestic, being unresolved conflicts and violence in the region which are compounded by climate risks.

The World Bank has expressed concern about the growing proportion of revenues that African economies are spending in debt service and cites this as a “liquidity challenge”.

Some have argued that the present debt crisis in Africa is fundamentally a solvency and not liquidity issue. How do you assess the situation?

For some countries it was definitely a solvency problem, they simply could not pay the debts and it was pretty clear. For many countries, it is a liquidity issue.

These countries could pay their debts but it is just that they did not have the cashflow at the time when the bills fell due and, in particular, when bills are due in the form of very large bullet payments, billions of dollars due all at once. Typically, what happens is that, if a country that is facing liquidity problems gets hit by a major global shock it is not then inconceivable to see liquidity challenges turning into solvency problems and that is the main worry.

That is why we always call for these countries in need to access funding that is cheap which provides liquidity and does not add too much to their debt burden.

Is the funding squeeze behind us? In 2024, we have seen Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Kenya return to the global financial markets with Eurobond issuances after close to a 24-month hiatus. Can African economies, especially those with large maturities this year such as Egypt, heave a sigh of relief and say that the markets have finally reopened?

I wish we could say that but I doubt it, the funding squeeze is definitely not behind us. In 2023, African countries spent 47 percent of their revenues on debt service, that is money that is not available at all for core development like education, health and infrastructure expansion. Unfortunately, other sources of financing have also dried up.

Foreign Direct Investment, which ideally if you could get a lot of it would not be adding to debt, has been declining and there is no end in sight that indeed it could turn the corner.

Loan disbursements from China, which has been a major source of financing, has also slowed down substantially and then private creditors have basically locked these countries out of financial markets. You mention Côte d'Ivoire, Benin and Kenya going back to market, but they are coming at a very high cost and it is very expensive.

For a lot countries that are not a Côte d'Ivoire, or a Benin or a Kenya, the premium is at 12 percent and they are not able to access the markets.

Would the developments around escalating tensions in the Middle East impact this newfound access by African economies?

Yes, it would. The thing that we are watching the most is what’s going on in the Middle East, there has been a significant escalation of conflict there. What we worry most about that is the possibility that the price of oil will rise and if the oil prices go up this could really fuel inflation and keep interest rates very high in the US and Europe, which will then lead to currency depreciation and devaluation and ultimately lower growth.

Speaking within the context of the prevailing debt crisis and the 2024 Spring Meeting in Washington DC, are you optimistic that these meetings will yield something tangible by way of the sticky issue of comparability of treatment among creditors and accelerated debt distress resolution for countries in default?

The recent Zambia debt-restructuring deal is indeed a hopeful development, but it has taken a very long time. It demonstrates what happens when there is no international mechanism to deal with sovereign debt problems. For individuals and corporates, we have bankruptcy laws. We unfortunately do not have anything recognizable for sovereign debt.

The G20 Common Framework was supposed to provide such a mechanism but it has so far failed to meet expectations. We have called for the G20 Common Framework to work better and this can be done through a few principles one of which is to bring official and commercial creditors into the room all at once to negotiate instead of having sequential negotiations that drag the process.

You could also just have a formula upfront that is very transparent which all creditors can use for comparability of treatment to ensure some form of equal burden sharing. This too can really speed up the process. Meanwhile, when countries come to the Common Framework for resolution, it will be important during that period to suspend debt service payments.

The World Bank is calling for “transformative policy action to build fiscal buffers”. In a year where we have 18 elections across the continent, does the Bank expect robust fiscal consolidation to be undertaken across Africa, considering the political sensitivities of expenditure rationalisation and raising taxes?

It is really important to have better and transparent budgeting processes so that you know what you are spending the money on and how efficient it is. There is no escaping the important of domestic resource mobilisation and this can be designed around strengthening tax administration, broadening the tax base and improving efficiency without necessarily burdening the most vulnerable.

Dabalen bio

Andrew Dabalen is the World Bank’s Africa Region Chief Economist since July 1, 2022, responsible for providing guidance on strategic priorities and the technical quality of economic analysis in the region, as well as for developing major regional economic studies, among other roles.

He has held various positions including Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region, Lead Economist and Practice Manager for Poverty and Equity in Africa and most recently, Practice Manager for Poverty and Equity in the South Asia Region.

His research and scholarly publications focused on poverty and social impact analysis, inequality of opportunity, program evaluation, risk and vulnerability, labour markets, and conflict and welfare outcomes. He has co-authored regional reports on equality of opportunity for children in Africa, vulnerability and resilience in the Sahel, and poverty in a rising Africa.

A Kenyan national, Dabalen holds a master’s degree in international development from University of California - Davis, and a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from University of California - Berkeley.

Kenya Economy to Overtake Angola, IMF Forecast Shows

TUESDAY APRIL 23 2024

Skyline of Nairobi City in Kenya. FILE PHOTO | NMG

By DOMINIC OMONDI

Kenya will overtake Angola to become the fourth largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa this year, behind South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia, a forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows.

The forecast sees Kenya maintaining that position until the end of 2029.

Last year, Kenya’s GDP was estimated to have grown to $108.9 billion (Ksh15.14 trillion, using the current exchange rate) from $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion on the existing rate then) in 2022.

Ethiopia, which has extended its lead over Kenya, is projected to overtake Nigeria in two years to become the second-largest economy in the region. 

The size of the Ethiopian economy — which was smaller than Kenya’s in 2020 — continued to grow and is estimated to have increased to $159.74 billion (Sh21.165 trillion) in 2023, widening the gap between it and Kenya.

Ethiopia’s economy is also expected to hold steady at the second position for three years to 2029.

But there are fears that Ethiopia’s gross domestic product (GDP) or the value of goods and services produced in the country, is overstated. The country emerged from a two-year civil war that ravaged its economy in 2022 and is one of the African countries that have defaulted on one of its debt obligations.

Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners UK Ltd, an investment management company, described the Ethiopian exchange rate as a “fantasy exchange rate.”

“Ethiopia is maintaining a hugely overvalued exchange rate which is not supported by reality,” said Robertson in an email response.

According to the FIM Partners FX model, a realistic exchange rate for the Ethiopian Birr is about 97 against the dollar, while the official rate is 57.

Coming from a GDP of $118.97 billion, the IMF estimates the Ethiopian economy to have grown by 7.2 percent last year, the fastest GDP growth in the Sub-Sahara.

Kenya, on the other hand, is estimated to have grown by a slower pace of 5.5 percent in 2023, as the economy emerged from a year that was characterised by drought and tight global financial markets owing to the war in Ukraine.

Kenya is expected to release its official GDP numbers for 2023 this month.

In 2022, when Ethiopia was just coming out of a two-year civil war, the Horn of Africa country had a GDP of $118.97 billion (Ksh15.76 trillion, using the then exchange rate), bigger than Kenya’s $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion) as built on the lead it established in the previous year.

A higher GDP is one of the magnets for investors because it is an indicator of a healthy economy.

Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous country, is expected to maintain a higher GDP than Kenya, according to the IMF. The forecast is contained in the database for the April 2024 World Economic Outlook.

However, some experts have poked holes in the IMF’s forecasts, citing the credibility of Ethiopia’s exchange rate.

As of the end of Monday, 56.9 Ethiopian Birr fetched one dollar while 132.5 Kenyan shillings bought a unit of the US currency.

To get an estimate of GDP in dollar terms, Robertson noted the IMF uses the official rate, which then puts the size of Ethiopia’s GDP in 2023 at around $160 billion against Kenya’s $109 billion.

“But at a realistic exchange rate, [Ethiopia’s] GDP was probably $90 billion. Kenya’s GDP by comparison was $109 billion in 2023. So, if you use the official figure, you’d say Ethiopia’s economy was about 50 percent bigger than Kenya – but in reality, Kenya’s economy is bigger.”

The IMF says the World Economic Outlook data are compiled by its staff at the time of the exercise.

"The historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk officers in the context of their missions to the IMF member countries and through the ongoing analysis evolving in each country," explained the IMF's Research Department in the World Economic Outlook.

IMF Kenya resident representative Selim Cakir did not respond to Business Daily calls for this story.

Ethiopia has been going through a rough patch, coming from a two-year civil war that ravaged its economy.

It became Africa's third defaulter after it failed to make a $33 million "coupon" payment on its Eurobond. The Government has applied for debt restructuring with the G20 Common Framework (CF) in January 2021.

Ken Gichinga, an economist, reckons that although it is difficult to refute figures that can only be computed by governments such as GDP, “colloquial wisdom” contradicts the IMF numbers. “All things constant, somebody might say this country has a bigger market, and if a country has a bigger market, it should attract more business,” said Mr Gichinga.

Tanzania is the third largest economy in eastern Africa with a GDP of $79.44 billion in 2023, followed by the DRC ($67.3 billion), and Uganda ($51.8 billion).

Rwanda’s GDP was estimated at $14.02 billion and Burundi ($4.2 billion).